Machine Learning Street Talk (MLST)

• How Machines Learn to Ignore the Noise (Kevin Ellis + Zenna Tavares)

  Prof. Kevin Ellis and Dr. Zenna Tavares talk about making AI smarter, like humans. They want AI to learn from just a little bit of information by actively trying things out, not just by looking at tons of data.They discuss two main ways AI can "think": one way is like following specific rules or steps (like a computer program), and the other is more intuitive, like guessing based on patterns (like modern AI often does). They found combining both methods works well for solving complex puzzles like ARC.A key idea is "compositionality" - building big ideas from small ones, like LEGOs. This is powerful but can also be overwhelming. Another important idea is "abstraction" - understanding things simply, without getting lost in details, and knowing there are different levels of understanding.Ultimately, they believe the best AI will need to explore, experiment, and build models of the world, much like humans do when learning something new.SPONSOR MESSAGES:***Tufa AI Labs is a brand new research lab in Zurich started by Benjamin Crouzier focussed on o-series style reasoning and AGI. They are hiring a Chief Engineer and ML engineers. Events in Zurich. Goto https://tufalabs.ai/***TRANSCRIPT:https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3ngggvhb3tnemw879er5y/BASIS.pdf?rlkey=lr2zbj3317mex1q5l0c2rsk0h&dl=0 Zenna Tavares:http://www.zenna.org/Kevin Ellis:https://www.cs.cornell.edu/~ellisk/TOC:1. Compositionality and Learning Foundations [00:00:00] 1.1 Compositional Search and Learning Challenges [00:03:55] 1.2 Bayesian Learning and World Models [00:12:05] 1.3 Programming Languages and Compositionality Trade-offs [00:15:35] 1.4 Inductive vs Transductive Approaches in AI Systems2. Neural-Symbolic Program Synthesis [00:27:20] 2.1 Integration of LLMs with Traditional Programming and Meta-Programming [00:30:43] 2.2 Wake-Sleep Learning and DreamCoder Architecture [00:38:26] 2.3 Program Synthesis from Interactions and Hidden State Inference [00:41:36] 2.4 Abstraction Mechanisms and Resource Rationality [00:48:38] 2.5 Inductive Biases and Causal Abstraction in AI Systems3. Abstract Reasoning Systems [00:52:10] 3.1 Abstract Concepts and Grid-Based Transformations in ARC [00:56:08] 3.2 Induction vs Transduction Approaches in Abstract Reasoning [00:59:12] 3.3 ARC Limitations and Interactive Learning Extensions [01:06:30] 3.4 Wake-Sleep Program Learning and Hybrid Approaches [01:11:37] 3.5 Project MARA and Future Research DirectionsREFS:[00:00:25] DreamCoder, Kevin Ellis et al.https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08381[00:01:10] Mind Your Step, Ryan Liu et al.https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.21333[00:06:05] Bayesian inference, Griffiths, T. L., Kemp, C., & Tenenbaum, J. B.https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-06911-003[00:13:00] Induction and Transduction, Wen-Ding Li, Zenna Tavares, Yewen Pu, Kevin Ellishttps://arxiv.org/abs/2411.02272[00:23:15] Neurosymbolic AI, Garcez, Artur d'Avila et al.https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.05876[00:33:50] Induction and Transduction (II), Wen-Ding Li, Kevin Ellis et al.https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.02272[00:38:35] ARC, François Chollethttps://arxiv.org/abs/1911.01547[00:39:20] Causal Reactive Programs, Ria Das, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Armando Solar-Lezama, Zenna Tavareshttp://www.zenna.org/publications/autumn2022.pdf[00:42:50] MuZero, Julian Schrittwieser et al.http://arxiv.org/pdf/1911.08265[00:43:20] VisualPredicator, Yichao Lianghttps://arxiv.org/abs/2410.23156[00:48:55] Bayesian models of cognition, Joshua B. Tenenbaumhttps://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262049412/bayesian-models-of-cognition/[00:49:30] The Bitter Lesson, Rich Suttonhttp://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html[01:06:35] Program induction, Kevin Ellis, Wen-Ding Lihttps://arxiv.org/pdf/2411.02272[01:06:50] DreamCoder (II), Kevin Ellis et al.https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08381[01:11:55] Project MARA, Zenna Tavares, Kevin Ellishttps://www.basis.ai/blog/mara/

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  1:16:55
• Eiso Kant (CTO poolside) - Superhuman Coding Is Coming!

  Eiso Kant, CTO of poolside AI, discusses the company's approach to building frontier AI foundation models, particularly focused on software development. Their unique strategy is reinforcement learning from code execution feedback which is an important axis for scaling AI capabilities beyond just increasing model size or data volume. Kant predicts human-level AI in knowledge work could be achieved within 18-36 months, outlining poolside's vision to dramatically increase software development productivity and accessibility. SPONSOR MESSAGES:***Tufa AI Labs is a brand new research lab in Zurich started by Benjamin Crouzier focussed on o-series style reasoning and AGI. They are hiring a Chief Engineer and ML engineers. Events in Zurich. Goto https://tufalabs.ai/***Eiso Kant:https://x.com/eisokanthttps://poolside.ai/TRANSCRIPT:https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/szepl6taqziyqie9wgmk9/poolside.pdf?rlkey=iqar7dcwshyrpeoz0xa76k422&dl=0TOC:1. Foundation Models and AI Strategy [00:00:00] 1.1 Foundation Models and Timeline Predictions for AI Development [00:02:55] 1.2 Poolside AI's Corporate History and Strategic Vision [00:06:48] 1.3 Foundation Models vs Enterprise Customization Trade-offs2. Reinforcement Learning and Model Economics [00:15:42] 2.1 Reinforcement Learning and Code Execution Feedback Approaches [00:22:06] 2.2 Model Economics and Experimental Optimization3. Enterprise AI Implementation [00:25:20] 3.1 Poolside's Enterprise Deployment Strategy and Infrastructure [00:26:00] 3.2 Enterprise-First Business Model and Market Focus [00:27:05] 3.3 Foundation Models and AGI Development Approach [00:29:24] 3.4 DeepSeek Case Study and Infrastructure Requirements4. LLM Architecture and Performance [00:30:15] 4.1 Distributed Training and Hardware Architecture Optimization [00:33:01] 4.2 Model Scaling Strategies and Chinchilla Optimality Trade-offs [00:36:04] 4.3 Emergent Reasoning and Model Architecture Comparisons [00:43:26] 4.4 Balancing Creativity and Determinism in AI Models [00:50:01] 4.5 AI-Assisted Software Development Evolution5. AI Systems Engineering and Scalability [00:58:31] 5.1 Enterprise AI Productivity and Implementation Challenges [00:58:40] 5.2 Low-Code Solutions and Enterprise Hiring Trends [01:01:25] 5.3 Distributed Systems and Engineering Complexity [01:01:50] 5.4 GenAI Architecture and Scalability Patterns [01:01:55] 5.5 Scaling Limitations and Architectural Patterns in AI Code Generation6. AI Safety and Future Capabilities [01:06:23] 6.1 Semantic Understanding and Language Model Reasoning Approaches [01:12:42] 6.2 Model Interpretability and Safety Considerations in AI Systems [01:16:27] 6.3 AI vs Human Capabilities in Software Development [01:33:45] 6.4 Enterprise Deployment and Security ArchitectureCORE REFS (see shownotes for URLs/more refs):[00:15:45] Research demonstrating how training on model-generated content leads to distribution collapse in AI models, Ilia Shumailov et al. (Key finding on synthetic data risk)[00:20:05] Foundational paper introducing Word2Vec for computing word vector representations, Tomas Mikolov et al. (Seminal NLP technique)[00:22:15] OpenAI O3 model's breakthrough performance on ARC Prize Challenge, OpenAI (Significant AI reasoning benchmark achievement)[00:22:40] Seminal paper proposing a formal definition of intelligence as skill-acquisition efficiency, François Chollet (Influential AI definition/philosophy)[00:30:30] Technical documentation of DeepSeek's V3 model architecture and capabilities, DeepSeek AI (Details on a major new model)[00:34:30] Foundational paper establishing optimal scaling laws for LLM training, Jordan Hoffmann et al. (Key paper on LLM scaling)[00:45:45] Seminal essay arguing that scaling computation consistently trumps human-engineered solutions in AI, Richard S. Sutton (Influential "Bitter Lesson" perspective)<trunc - see PDF shownotes>

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  1:36:28
• The Compendium - Connor Leahy and Gabriel Alfour

  Connor Leahy and Gabriel Alfour, AI researchers from Conjecture and authors of "The Compendium," joinus for a critical discussion centered on Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) safety and governance. Drawing from their comprehensive analysis in "The Compendium," they articulate a stark warning about the existential risks inherent in uncontrolled AI development, framing it through the lens of "intelligence domination"—where a sufficiently advanced AI could subordinate humanity, much like humans dominate less intelligent species.SPONSOR MESSAGES:***Tufa AI Labs is a brand new research lab in Zurich started by Benjamin Crouzier focussed on o-series style reasoning and AGI. They are hiring a Chief Engineer and ML engineers. Events in Zurich. Goto https://tufalabs.ai/***TRANSCRIPT + REFS + NOTES:https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/p86l75y4o2ii40df5t7no/Compendium.pdf?rlkey=tukczgf3flw133sr9rgss0pnj&dl=0https://www.thecompendium.ai/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connor_Leahyhttps://www.conjecture.dev/abouthttps://substack.com/@gabecc​TOC:1. AI Intelligence and Safety Fundamentals [00:00:00] 1.1 Understanding Intelligence and AI Capabilities [00:06:20] 1.2 Emergence of Intelligence and Regulatory Challenges [00:10:18] 1.3 Human vs Animal Intelligence Debate [00:18:00] 1.4 AI Regulation and Risk Assessment Approaches [00:26:14] 1.5 Competing AI Development Ideologies2. Economic and Social Impact [00:29:10] 2.1 Labor Market Disruption and Post-Scarcity Scenarios [00:32:40] 2.2 Institutional Frameworks and Tech Power Dynamics [00:37:40] 2.3 Ethical Frameworks and AI Governance Debates [00:40:52] 2.4 AI Alignment Evolution and Technical Challenges3. Technical Governance Framework [00:55:07] 3.1 Three Levels of AI Safety: Alignment, Corrigibility, and Boundedness [00:55:30] 3.2 Challenges of AI System Corrigibility and Constitutional Models [00:57:35] 3.3 Limitations of Current Boundedness Approaches [00:59:11] 3.4 Abstract Governance Concepts and Policy Solutions4. Democratic Implementation and Coordination [00:59:20] 4.1 Governance Design and Measurement Challenges [01:00:10] 4.2 Democratic Institutions and Experimental Governance [01:14:10] 4.3 Political Engagement and AI Safety Advocacy [01:25:30] 4.4 Practical AI Safety Measures and International CoordinationCORE REFS:[00:01:45] The Compendium (2023), Leahy et al.https://pdf.thecompendium.ai/the_compendium.pdf[00:06:50] Geoffrey Hinton Leaves Google, BBC Newshttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65452940[00:10:00] ARC-AGI, Chollethttps://arcprize.org/arc-agi[00:13:25] A Brief History of Intelligence, Bennetthttps://www.amazon.com/Brief-History-Intelligence-Humans-Breakthroughs/dp/0063286343[00:25:35] Statement on AI Risk, Center for AI Safetyhttps://www.safe.ai/work/statement-on-ai-risk[00:26:15] Machines of Love and Grace, Amodeihttps://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace[00:26:35] The Techno-Optimist Manifesto, Andreessenhttps://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/[00:31:55] Techno-Feudalism, Varoufakishttps://www.amazon.co.uk/Technofeudalism-Killed-Capitalism-Yanis-Varoufakis/dp/1847927270[00:42:40] Introducing Superalignment, OpenAIhttps://openai.com/index/introducing-superalignment/[00:47:20] Three Laws of Robotics, Asimovhttps://www.britannica.com/topic/Three-Laws-of-Robotics[00:50:00] Symbolic AI (GOFAI), Haugelandhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbolic_artificial_intelligence[00:52:30] Intent Alignment, Christianohttps://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/HEZgGBZTpT4Bov7nH/mapping-the-conceptual-territory-in-ai-existential-safety[00:55:10] Large Language Model Alignment: A Survey, Jiang et al.http://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.15025[00:55:40] Constitutional Checks and Balances, Bokhttps://plato.stanford.edu/entries/montesquieu/<trunc, see PDF>

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  1:37:10
• ARC Prize v2 Launch! (Francois Chollet and Mike Knoop)

  We are joined by Francois Chollet and Mike Knoop, to launch the new version of the ARC prize! In version 2, the challenges have been calibrated with humans such that at least 2 humans could solve each task in a reasonable task, but also adversarially selected so that frontier reasoning models can't solve them. The best LLMs today get negligible performance on this challenge. https://arcprize.org/SPONSOR MESSAGES:***Tufa AI Labs is a brand new research lab in Zurich started by Benjamin Crouzier focussed on o-series style reasoning and AGI. They are hiring a Chief Engineer and ML engineers. Events in Zurich. Goto https://tufalabs.ai/***TRANSCRIPT:https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/0v9o8xcpppdwnkntj59oi/ARCv2.pdf?rlkey=luqb6f141976vra6zdtptv5uj&dl=0TOC:1. ARC v2 Core Design & Objectives [00:00:00] 1.1 ARC v2 Launch and Benchmark Architecture [00:03:16] 1.2 Test-Time Optimization and AGI Assessment [00:06:24] 1.3 Human-AI Capability Analysis [00:13:02] 1.4 OpenAI o3 Initial Performance Results2. ARC Technical Evolution [00:17:20] 2.1 ARC-v1 to ARC-v2 Design Improvements [00:21:12] 2.2 Human Validation Methodology [00:26:05] 2.3 Task Design and Gaming Prevention [00:29:11] 2.4 Intelligence Measurement Framework3. O3 Performance & Future Challenges [00:38:50] 3.1 O3 Comprehensive Performance Analysis [00:43:40] 3.2 System Limitations and Failure Modes [00:49:30] 3.3 Program Synthesis Applications [00:53:00] 3.4 Future Development RoadmapREFS:[00:00:15] On the Measure of Intelligence, François Chollethttps://arxiv.org/abs/1911.01547[00:06:45] ARC Prize Foundation, François Chollet, Mike Knoophttps://arcprize.org/[00:12:50] OpenAI o3 model performance on ARC v1, ARC Prize Teamhttps://arcprize.org/blog/oai-o3-pub-breakthrough[00:18:30] Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models, Jason Wei et al.https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.11903[00:21:45] ARC-v2 benchmark tasks, Mike Knoophttps://arcprize.org/blog/introducing-arc-agi-public-leaderboard[00:26:05] ARC Prize 2024: Technical Report, Francois Chollet et al.https://arxiv.org/html/2412.04604v2[00:32:45] ARC Prize 2024 Technical Report, Francois Chollet, Mike Knoop, Gregory Kamradthttps://arxiv.org/abs/2412.04604[00:48:55] The Bitter Lesson, Rich Suttonhttp://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html[00:53:30] Decoding strategies in neural text generation, Sina Zarrießhttps://www.mdpi.com/2078-2489/12/9/355/pdf

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  54:15
• Test-Time Adaptation: the key to reasoning with DL (Mohamed Osman)

  Mohamed Osman joins to discuss MindsAI's highest scoring entry to the ARC challenge 2024 and the paradigm of test-time fine-tuning. They explore how the team, now part of Tufa Labs in Zurich, achieved state-of-the-art results using a combination of pre-training techniques, a unique meta-learning strategy, and an ensemble voting mechanism. Mohamed emphasizes the importance of raw data input and flexibility of the network.SPONSOR MESSAGES:***Tufa AI Labs is a brand new research lab in Zurich started by Benjamin Crouzier focussed on o-series style reasoning and AGI. They are hiring a Chief Engineer and ML engineers. Events in Zurich. Goto https://tufalabs.ai/***TRANSCRIPT + REFS:https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/jeavyqidsjzjgjgd7ns7h/MoFInal.pdf?rlkey=cjjmo7rgtenxrr3b46nk6yq2e&dl=0Mohamed Osman (Tufa Labs)https://x.com/MohamedOsmanMLJack Cole (Tufa Labs)https://x.com/MindsAI_JackHow and why deep learning for ARC paper:https://github.com/MohamedOsman1998/deep-learning-for-arc/blob/main/deep_learning_for_arc.pdfTOC:1. Abstract Reasoning Foundations [00:00:00] 1.1 Test-Time Fine-Tuning and ARC Challenge Overview [00:10:20] 1.2 Neural Networks vs Programmatic Approaches to Reasoning [00:13:23] 1.3 Code-Based Learning and Meta-Model Architecture [00:20:26] 1.4 Technical Implementation with Long T5 Model2. ARC Solution Architectures [00:24:10] 2.1 Test-Time Tuning and Voting Methods for ARC Solutions [00:27:54] 2.2 Model Generalization and Function Generation Challenges [00:32:53] 2.3 Input Representation and VLM Limitations [00:36:21] 2.4 Architecture Innovation and Cross-Modal Integration [00:40:05] 2.5 Future of ARC Challenge and Program Synthesis Approaches3. Advanced Systems Integration [00:43:00] 3.1 DreamCoder Evolution and LLM Integration [00:50:07] 3.2 MindsAI Team Progress and Acquisition by Tufa Labs [00:54:15] 3.3 ARC v2 Development and Performance Scaling [00:58:22] 3.4 Intelligence Benchmarks and Transformer Limitations [01:01:50] 3.5 Neural Architecture Optimization and Processing DistributionREFS:[00:01:32] Original ARC challenge paper, François Chollethttps://arxiv.org/abs/1911.01547[00:06:55] DreamCoder, Kevin Ellis et al.https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08381[00:12:50] Deep Learning with Python, François Chollethttps://www.amazon.com/Deep-Learning-Python-Francois-Chollet/dp/1617294438[00:13:35] Deep Learning with Python, François Chollethttps://www.amazon.com/Deep-Learning-Python-Francois-Chollet/dp/1617294438[00:13:35] Influence of pretraining data for reasoning, Laura Ruishttps://arxiv.org/abs/2411.12580[00:17:50] Latent Program Networks, Clement Bonnethttps://arxiv.org/html/2411.08706v1[00:20:50] T5, Colin Raffel et al.https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683[00:30:30] Combining Induction and Transduction for Abstract Reasoning, Wen-Ding Li, Kevin Ellis et al.https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.02272[00:34:15] Six finger problem, Chen et al.https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/CVPR2024/papers/Chen_SpatialVLM_Endowing_Vision-Language_Models_with_Spatial_Reasoning_Capabilities_CVPR_2024_paper.pdf[00:38:15] DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama, DeepSeek AIhttps://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-70B[00:40:10] ARC Prize 2024 Technical Report, François Chollet et al.https://arxiv.org/html/2412.04604v2[00:45:20] LLM-Guided Compositional Program Synthesis, Wen-Ding Li and Kevin Ellishttps://arxiv.org/html/2503.15540[00:54:25] Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus, François Chollethttps://github.com/fchollet/ARC-AGI[00:57:10] O3 breakthrough on ARC-AGI, OpenAIhttps://arcprize.org/[00:59:35] ConceptARC Benchmark, Arseny Moskvichev, Melanie Mitchellhttps://arxiv.org/abs/2305.07141[01:02:05] Mixtape: Breaking the Softmax Bottleneck Efficiently, Yang, Zhilin and Dai, Zihang and Salakhutdinov, Ruslan and Cohen, William W.http://papers.neurips.cc/paper/9723-mixtape-breaking-the-softmax-bottleneck-efficiently.pdf

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  1:03:36

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