Inspiring and thought-provoking conversations with leading thinkers about influential ideas on business, technology, economics, and science. Hosted by Martin Re...
In Uncertainty and Enterprise: Venturing Beyond the Known, Amar Bhidé revisits and modernizes the concept of Knightian uncertainty. Introduced more than 100 years ago, the concept offers great potential for better understanding corporate decision-making.A renowned expert on innovation, entrepreneurship, and finance, Bhidé is a professor of Health Policy at the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, as well as a professor emeritus of Business at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University.In his conversation with Martin Reeves, chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Bhidé discusses the important distinction between repeated and unique events, the relationship between uncertainty and imagination, how corporations can use persuasive narratives and social routes to navigate the future, and whether AI will help or hinder these practices.Key topics discussed:01:16 | The definition of uncertainty04:49 | The relation between uncertainty and imagination09:32 | The power of corporate routines15:57 | The changing nature of uncertainty17:25 | How AI impacts uncertainty21:02 | Corporate implications22:38 | Implications for business educationAdditional inspirations from Amar Bhidé:A Call for Judgment: Sensible Finance for a Dynamic Economy (Oxford University Press, 2010)The Venturesome Economy: How Innovation Sustains Prosperity in a More Connected World (Princeton University Press, 2008)The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses (Oxford University Press, 2000)Flourishing in an Uncertain World: How Entrepreneurs Overcome Doubts and Disagreements (The Kansas City Public Library Lecture, 2025)
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The M&A Failure Trap, with Baruch Lev and Feng Gu
In The M&A Failure Trap: Why Most Mergers and Acquisitions Fail and How the Few Succeed, Baruch Lev and Feng Gu provide a wealth of evidence on the success and failure factors of acquisitions.Lev, professor emeritus of Accounting and Finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Gu, professor of Accounting and Law at the State University of New York, have analyzed more than 40,000 acquisitions over the past four decades. This has not only allowed them to understand the reasons why 75% of deals fail but also to develop a scorecard that can help decision-makers assess the likelihood of acquisition success ex ante.In their conversation with Martin Reeves, chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Lev and Gu discuss how to measure acquisition success, how to curb overconfidence on the side of the acquirer, and key lessons for CEOs seeking inorganic growth.Key topics discussed:[02:45] How mergers and acquisitions have changed[05:00] Judging the success or failure of acquisitions[08:16] Drivers of acquisition failure[14:41] Patterns of successful acquisitions[17:27] Overconfidence and its causes[19:51] Managerial implications
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Mindmasters with Sandra Matz
In Mindmasters: The Data-Driven Science of Predicting and Changing Human Behavior, Sandra Matz explores what our digital footprints reveal about us and how these insights are used to influence our daily decisions.Matz is the David W. Zalaznick Associate Professor of Business at Columbia Business School, where she also serves as co-director of the Center for Advanced Technology and Human Performance. Using her background in psychology and computer science, Matz investigates the intricate connections between our digital and real lives and how these are shaped by technology.In her conversation with Martin Reeves, chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Matz discusses the power of psychological profiling, highlights the harms as well as benefits of the personalization it enables, and outlines implications for businesses and regulators, including the possibility of entirely new business models.Key topics discussed: [01:10] Power of psychological profiling[05:05] Scale and impact of big data–based psychological profiling[09:06] Benefits and harms of personalization[16:05] Challenges of regulating profiling and personalization[17:57] Ramifications of the AI-driven content revolution[23:20] Implications for businesses[28:37] How to manage your data footprintAdditional inspirations from Sandra Matz: Psychological Targeting: What Your Digital Footprints Reveal About You (TED Talk, 2019)
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The Unaccountability Machine with Dan Davies
In The Unaccountability Machine: Why Big Systems Make Terrible Decisions and How the World Lost Its Mind, Dan Davies examines why companies and governments systematically generate outcomes that everyone involved claims they do not want.Davies is an economist, writer, and former investment banker known for his insightful analysis of finance, corporate governance, and decision-making systems. He has written extensively on topics such as financial fraud, accountability in organizations, and the intersections of economics and management. His latest book combines cybernetics theory and real-world examples to explain how decisions are increasingly made not by accountable individuals, but by systems.In his conversation with Martin Reeves, chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Davies describes the pathologies of failing decision-making systems, explains why we tend not to learn from past mistakes, and outlines why he worries that AI might not improve our capability to make decisions unless we carefully redesign decision systems to tap its potential.Key topics discussed: 01:03 | Unintended outcomes generated by decision-making systems07:08 | What we can learn from the theory of cybernetics09:49 | Pathologies of failing information systems11:49 | Why we make the same mistakes again and again14:41 | How AI may impact decision-making16:39 | Steps toward improving our decision-making systemsAdditional inspirations from Dan Davies:The Brompton: Engineering for Change, co-authored by William Butler-Adams (The Experiment, 2022)Lying for Money: How Legendary Frauds Reveal the Workings of the World (Scribner, 2021)Back of Mind (Substack)
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AI Snake Oil with Sayash Kapoor
In AI Snake Oil: What AI Can Do, What It Can’t, and How to Tell the Difference, Sayash Kapoor and his co-author Arvind Narayanan provide an essential understanding of how AI works and why some applications remain fundamentally beyond its capabilities.Kapoor was included in TIME’s inaugural list of the 100 most influential people in AI. As a researcher at Princeton University’s Center for Information Technology Policy, he examines the societal impacts of AI, with a focus on reproducibility, transparency, and accountability in AI systems. In his new book, he cuts through the hype to help readers discriminate between legitimate and bogus claims for AI technologies and applications.In his conversation with Martin Reeves, chair of the BCG Henderson Institute, Kapoor discusses historical patterns of technology hype, differentiates between the powers and limitations of predictive versus generative AI, and outlines how managers can balance healthy skepticism with embracing the potential of new technologies.Key topics discussed: 01:05 | Examples of AI “snake oil”04:42 | Historical patterns of technology hypeand how AI is different07:26 | Capabilities and exaggerations of predictive AI11:42 | Powers and limitations of generative AI17:11 | Drivers of inflated expectations20:18 | Implications for regulation23:26 | How managers can balance scepticism and embracing new tech24:58 | Future of AI researchAdditional inspirations from Sayash Kapoor:AI Snake Oil (Substack)A Checklist of Eighteen Pitfalls in AI Journalism (UNESCO article, 2022)
Inspiring and thought-provoking conversations with leading thinkers about influential ideas on business, technology, economics, and science. Hosted by Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, and Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Global Chief Economist of BCG.
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